I am a very casual CAD user. Many many years ago, Fred Flintstone and I were introduced to the "Anvil" CAD system, which was the official CAD system for TRW in the mid 1980's. Anvil didn't last long, and I soon found myself using AutoCAD 9 to make 2D drawings of factory layouts. I eventually graduated to AutoCAD 14 (or some similar version) and even did some very simple 3D plans for my house. (Actually, they were really 2.5D, and very awkward to use.) I never became very proficient in any modern CAD system, but always felt the desire to do good engineering sketches in both my professional and personal (nerdy) life.

More recently, still wanting to do good quality sketches, I started looking for some type of drawing program. I've gotten pretty good at Microsoft Visio at work, but wanted something for home use. Since I'm primarily a Linux-nerd, I've looked mostly for Linux solutions. I found many Visio-like drawing programs for Linux, including one in the now-ubiquitous OpenOffice suite. Unfortunately, while the OpenOffice drawing program is actually pretty good, I felt it was somewhat awkward (much more so than Visio), and it still didn't give me the true 3D perspective I wanted for my sketches. There are tons of 2D drawing programs for Linux (and Windows), but all are rather limited in that they can't do any type of real perspective or modeling that a true 3D system provides. This led me to search for affordable 3D solid modeling CAD systems that were not too complicated for a casual user like me to learn.

My first selection was SolidWorks, which I was able to pick up as an - ahem - archival backup on the Internet. SolidWorks is a professional 3D solid modeling CAD system. It is widely used and very well liked by its users. I found it ran well on Windows XP running in a virtual machine under Linux. SolidWorks has the added benefit of being something of an industry standard. Knowing how to use it could potentially be advantageous in "real" life since it is used in so many industrial settings.

I did find two big drawbacks to SolidWorks however: 1) Using it is a felony if you haven't paid for it; & 2) Training help is difficult to find unless you pay real money, or know somebody who you can continually pester with questions.

SolidWorks includes a fairly good tutorial, but I often found myself stuck on some simple problem which I was completely unable to figure out. Had I taken real courses, or had a local guru to consult, I'm sure I could have gotten over these problems.

So I started a search for a 3D CAD system. This is a report of the results of that search. I ended up with "VX Innovator" running on Windows XP in a VirtualBox virtual machine on Linux.

CAD Systems Requirements

My "Must Haves" for a CAD system were fairly simple, yet demanding. I wanted:

1. Professional-quality 3D solid parametric modeling
2. Consumer-quality pricing (ie: $100 target price)
3. Runs on my Gentoo Linux AMD-64 system
4. A training/tutorial system by which a tech-savvy novice (ie: me) can become proficient in the system

My "Want To Haves" were also simple:

1. Runs natively on Linux instead of in an emulator
2. Helps me build 3D CAD skills which would be generally transferable to other well-known CAD systems (after a brief learning curve)

In my investigation, I came across 4 possible programs:

1. SolidWorks
2. VariCAD
3. Alibre
4. VX

There are tons of other CAD systems for around $100. Many of these can be purchased on-line, or at office superstores and Walmart. I may have dismissed these unfairly, but I wanted a __REAL__ CAD system.

Windows Virtual Machines on Linux

I run Windows XP under Linux by using Sun's free "VirtualBox" (http://www.virtualbox.org/) program. This program fools Windows into thinking it's on a completely separate computer, when it is actually another program running on my Linux computer. It runs at the same time that Linux is running, and it can do things like share file directories, printers, the mouse, and the monitor with Linux. This works very well for almost every application I've tried, with the exception of some very graphics-intensive games. Things like Microsoft Office run perfectly. More recent versions of VirtualBox claim to support "3D acceleration" in Windows, but I've found this to be buggy. Hopefully, since VirtualBox is being very actively developed by Sun, these problems will disappear in the future.

All the Windows CAD programs I tried needed to run under VirtualBox, or under WINE, a less capable Windows Emulator for Linux.

SolidWorks

My first choice was to find a low-cost (ie: <$300) source for SolidWorks and to give up my life as a felon. SolidWorks runs just fine on a virtual machine under Linux, even though I didn't have the 3D acceleration activated. Unfortunately, although I was able to find some supposedly low cost versions for sale on the Internet, these retailers seemed pretty sleazy and I doubted whether they were legitimate. It seems SolidWorks is only sold through local "value added" retailers, and that means costs are in the thousands of dollars per seat. I even checked with some of the local community college tech schools, but none in my area teach SolidWorks, and none knew of a "student discount" available.

Training also was a problem for SolidWorks. They have a reasonably good tutorial, but any extra training is provided by these same value-added retailers, and was beyond my budget. Surprisingly to me, not much free training is available for SolidWorks on the Internet. I did find a local instructor who agreed to answer my SolidWorks questions via eMail. But I didn't know him very well, so didn't want to be pest to him.

VariCAD

After I realized that I would not be able to afford SolidWorks, I then looked at Linux 3D CAD systems, but only found one that looked like it had any possibilities: VariCAD. (http://www.varicad.com/en/home/). They are a European company, and therefore a little goofy to American eyes, but seemed very professional. VariCAD comes in both Windows and Linux variants, and has a fully-functional demo. It's price of $760 is a little steep, but they mention "student" pricing of $95, and although they never actually agreed to sell it to me at that price, I'm pretty certain I could have gotten it if I had pressed them more.

VariCAD looked very nice, although not as "polished" as their web site would lead you to believe. It also wasn't as polished as the other CAD systems I'll discuss here. It installed easily on my Gentoo Linux system, even though it is designed for Red Hat and Ubuntu/Debian systems. It comes in both 32-bit and 64-bit executables.

It has a series of rather rudimentary tutorials, which I found to be just barely adequate. Unfortunately, I found a pretty profound bug in the system while on the 3rd tutorial, and never was able to get it to work properly. VariCAD responded to my query about the bug, saying they couldn't duplicate it, so this may have been caused by me running it on Gentoo Linux instead of Ubuntu/Debian. Also, I run the unstable branch of Gentoo, which is bleeding edge and more likely to have uncorrected bugs. Even though the bug may not be the fault of VariCAD, finding a serious bug in a complex program while still early in the tutorial discouraged me and I looked elsewhere for a CAD program.

Alibre

I read some good comments about Alibre, so downloaded the trial version (https://www.alibre.com/downloads/downloads.aspx). It's strictly Windows, but seemed to execute under VirtualBox on Linux. They offer multiple versions of this program for special applications such as sheet metal punching. I was interested in the basic version, which can be purchased for as little as $99, if you are willing to accept a slightly older version of the program.

They include a tutorial, which looked to be adequate. They also offer a series of training videos for $300.

Alibre seemed like a fine program. It was a "real" 3D solid modeling CAD system, and it wasn't too bloody expensive. I only had one problem: it wouldn't run properly in my virtual machine under Linux. Something about the video graphics system often blanked the actual CAD image on the screen (although the menus always were displayed). So, except for the fact that I couldn't see the thing I was designing, it was fine <sigh>. I assume this program would have worked fine if I had been running Windows XP natively, but I'm a dedicated Linux nerd, and running Windows natively is not in my DNA. I also think that I probably could have mucked with enough settings to bludgeon the system into working, but wasn't looking to spend that much effort to make it work.

VX

I stumbled across VX (http://www.vx.com/) and, like Alibre, was impressed with professionalism of the web site. They also have a trial version which can be downloaded. Also like Alibre, they offer a variety of specialized versions for molding and/or machining. I was only interested in the basic "Innovator" product, and was a little confused by which version the demo was. (It is the same demo file for all of the versions; it could be activated as any of them, but defaults to the Innovator).

I was also impressed with the sophistication of their tutorials. I found the tutorials a little confusing at the very first, until I realized that they were showing graphics of both the designed part and the commands on the screen at same time. After that, I found the tutorials very helpful. Interestingly, they were the only tutorial I found that included draft angles of the type needed for injection molded parts. I presume all 3D CAD systems have this feature, but only VX included it early in the tutorials.

Pricing for VX, at $995, was beyond my budget. They made no mention of student pricing, but I eMailed them on a Saturday morning asking if they had a student price. I'm no student, but maybe "non-commercial" is equivalent to "student". Surprisingly, I got a very quick reply from their Marketing Manager, and this started a series of eMails that lasted all weekend, and continued for several weeks. [Jarrod, the Marketing Manager is apparently on duty 24/7. That means either: 1) Business is really poor and they need every sale they can get; 2) He's just a workaholic who can't shut off his computer; or 3) they are simply very responsive to their customers. I'm guessing the answer is a little of all 3 reasons.] Jarrod explained that they don't offer student pricing, but would reactivate a $195 promotional price that had expired 2 weeks previously.

I ended up purchasing VX Innovator at $195.

I had a couple of problems getting the purchase completed, due to me doing half the transaction on the web site, then aborting the transaction before it was completed. Also, they had a few issues with their "coupon" system which had the system charge me the full $995 price. Luckily, VX Corp seems like a small enough company that there are real people who look at these things and corrected the error manually. In fact, Jarrod, the sleepless Marketing Manager himself called me to let me know there was a problem with the purchase. One of the things I like about VX Corp is this relatively small size. I am confident that if I were to have any type serious issue I would be able to get it easily corrected by talking to a real human being.

VX Licensing and Activation

Once I had actually purchased VX, I installed it and activated it. (The actual program is the same as the demo program. You just input some license data to the opening screen to make it the activated version). This led me to the only feature of VX that I simply DETEST.

VX is activated on a single computer. If you want to move the program to a new computer, you lose your activation and have to request a new activation code. Although I am sure that VX Corp would provide me a new code if I needed it, I hate to be beholden to any corporation for permission to use something I've purchased. What happens three years from now when I update my computer and still want to use the current version of VX? Will they still even be in business? [Actually, as a nerd, I sometime change my computers every couple of weeks. Will I have to continually ask them for a new number? How long will this take until they don't believe I'm just a hardware-hacker and decide I'm pirating instead?] NOTE: See the "Update" section later in this review for more info.

The activation process involves running a program which generates a unique "System ID" number for your computer. You provide this to VX Corp via a web site, and they eMail you a very long license string. The kicker is this license string will only activate the copy on that particular computer. As a test, I tried to activate it in a separate VirtualBox virtual machine (on the same Linux computer) which was running Microsoft Vista instead of Windows XP. That activation failed because the System ID was different on the different virtual machine. Once again, I'm sure that VX would help me get a new code for a new computer, but this is much more onerous than a simple activation code.

There is one other aspect to their license that worried me a little. The eMail I received with my license activation code listed an "Expiration Date". I __THINK__ this means that support and upgrades expire on this date. However, if this means my license expires on this date, I will be very upset. NOTE: See the "Update" section later in this review for more info.

I found it very easy to pirate SolidWorks, and no one can blame VX Corp for trying to protect their intellectual property. Once again, I am sure that VX would provide me a new license key if I were to want to move the program to a new computer. However, had I realized how restrictive their licensing and activation system was, I would have continued to look at other systems. [Jarrod: Please take note of this!]

VX Assistance & Training

One of the best features of VX is the on-line tutorial. This is backed up by an extensive list of on-line training videos. I haven't yet gotten all the way through the tutorials, but these all seem to be excellent.

VX also sent me a friendly eMail newsletter from one of their support gurus. I sent him an eMail with a copy of a model file I was working on and asking for help in how to add a feature to one of the surfaces. He sent a reply back a few days later (apologizing for the slow reply) with some examples. He actually didn't answer my specific question, which was probably due to the confusing and unclear way I had asked it. He did however include a model file he had created. The nifty "Replay History" feature of VX (which I was not even aware of) let me see exactly how he created the model. So I deduct a point for not answering my specific question, and a half a point for taking too long to answer, but add several points for his taking the time to actually create a new model which showed me what he thought I wanted to know. NOTE: See the "Update" section later in this review for more info.

This comes back to reinforce my opinion that VX Corp is small enough to offer personal help. I got to deal with real people who understood the software, and didn't have to put up with a local value-added retailer whose prime motivation was for me to purchase some super-deluxe training package at very high cost.

General VX Comments

Since I'm relatively new to 3D modeling, I'm probably not the best evaluator of how well VX stacks up to other systems. But for what its worth, here are some comments on the system.

• - The menus seems pretty well thought out. The icons are illustrative of their function. I thought the SolidWorks schemes were slightly better, but that may be simply my familiarity with them. I preferred how SolidWorks lets you select wireframe or rendered views. VX does the same thing with a toggle action which isn't quite as intuitive. I haven't had any trouble finding any particular command buried in the VX menu system. (How many complex programs is that true of? For example, have you ever tried to find the "label" menu item in Microsoft Word?).

• - I found the tutorial a little confusing at first, but it was excellent once I realized how it was set up. The web page full of video tutorials look to be excellent too, although I haven't really dug into them too much yet. Unfortunately, when working through a tutorial, you can't save the tutorial model under a new file name and then restart it later, since the tutorial system relies on the model's file name in its macros. This made me leery I might wipe out the original tutorial file by mistake.

• - Screen updates are a little slow on my Linux system, but this is due to the VirtualBox graphics weaknesses. I tried the demo on a native Windows XP system and updates were very smooth and quick. VX will not run under WINE (the Linux windows emulator), but does run pretty well in VirtualBox. I haven't tried it under VMWare, since VMWare for the desktop is not a free program.

• - I was not able to directly import my old SolidWorks drawings into VX. VX will import all the standard interchange formats (IGES, STEP, etc), but will not directly load a SolidWorks file.

• - The help system includes a list of all the Ctrl key codes, so it's easy to learn the keyboard shortcuts. This is a very nice feature that I wish other programs emulated. The help system itself links to a VX web page, so I expect this to stay up to date very well.

VX Conclusions – Pluses and Minuses

So after a couple of weeks of working with VX (interrupted by extensive traveling which made it impossible for me to focus on VX like I would have liked to), here's where it stands:

Pluses:

• - Professional 3D solid model CAD system
• - "Consumer" price level
• - Runs inside a virtual machine on Linux
• - Very good tutorial, and lots of on-line help
• - Good company support

Minuses:

• - Activation restricts program to a single computer. Upgrade your computer and you need a new activation code
• - Priced higher than Alibre, which is very similar
• - Needs a virtual machine emulator to run on Linux. Screen updates are slowed by being in a virtual machine.

Updates – Nov 7, 2009:

Since I published this review, I've gotten some more info from VX regarding their licensing, and gotten some more help from their tech-support guru. None of this info has substantially changed my favorable opinions about VX; in fact, it's actually tended to confirm my existing opinions.

Licensing Update

I received an eMail from the Jarrod the Marketing Manager clarifying some of the terms of VX's licensing. As I had stated, I particularly disliked the way their activation scheme would only allow the program to run on a single computer, since it was tied to a specific "System ID" value. I felt this restricted me from moving the program to other computers, as I was very likely to do. I also worried that if VX went out of business, I would be unable to use the program.

VX has a "Licensing FAQ" on their website which I had overlooked which spells out their policy for updated activation codes. They already have a policy where they will provide an updated code annually, and have a mechanism where you can activate it for 30 days in an emergency. They have a special eMail address to request the updated code too. Beyond that, I am still convinced that if I moved the program to new computers more than once per year, they would happily support me.

They also offer a USB dongle for $99 which eliminates the entire problem, since the program will always run if the dongle is inserted. This is a good solution, except it would raise the total cost of the program by 50%. (I'm sure that $99 just about covers the actual cost to VX for the dongle, so nobody really comes out ahead in this deal.)

Jarrod also confirmed my guess about the 1-year term of the license. VX reissues licenses each year. This seems somewhat complicated to me, but will keep you operating.

I still feel VX's activation scheme is way too onerous. Again, I can appreciate that VX wants to protect the intellectual property that forms the entire basis for their livelihoods. There is no easy solution to balancing this need to protect their property with the user's desire to run software unfettered in whatever manner they chose. Software piracy is a real problem, especially for smaller companies. The system VX has created is probably not too bad for large or medium sized companies. For the casual user like me who is used to the wide-open Linux world, it is tremendously confining however. I still feel that if I had realized how restrictive this activation scheme was, I would have continued to look for other 3D CAD systems. I may not have found another one I liked better, but I would have continued my search and looked at some other less-sophisticated programs.

VX will do what they believe to be in their best interest, but I urge them to relax this system.

VX Assistance & Training Update

I had sent an eMailed query to Eugene, VX's support guru, asking for help in adding a feature to a model. He had eMailed me back a model he had created showing me how to do what I wanted to do. Unfortunately, I had not been clear in my request, and he actually showed me something else. I replied to him and restated my request.

This time I received a speedy reply which exactly answered my question. Even more impressive, Eugene included a whole bunch of screen shots showing me the exact commands he used to create the feature. Eugene also offered to walk me though this process during a live chat if I liked.

The support and training available from VX is outstanding. This appears to be another benefit of having a medium sized company. Can you imagine calling SolidWorks and getting somebody to send you a bunch of screen shots on how to do something? They'd probably send you to the local "value added" retailer who'd try to sign you up for the $800 training course.

Updated VX Conclusions – Pluses and Minuses

Not much changed from before. VX is an excellent, professional quality 3D solid modeling CAD system which is priced very reasonably. It runs well on my hardware, even with the complication of running on a virtual machine under Linux. Their support is excellent, tutorials are great, and the on-line training is wonderful. There are real people who you can deal with to help with any problem that might arise. The only significant negative is the licensing, which restricts you to running the program on a single computer, and forces you to request a reactivation code if you upgrade your hardware, unless you spend an additional $99 for a dongle.

Note: This is the full version of this review. An abbreviated version is posted on VX's user forum. I am happy to correct errors in this entry, and may add updates as I use the program more. Click on the comment section below if you'd like to add your 2 cents.

I didn't vote for Obama, so Obama supporters may discount the opinions in this blog post, but if I had voted for Obama, I'd be pissed. He made a number of very specific and emphatic campaign promises, and he routinely denounced some specific actions of the Bush administrations. To date, many of the most important of those promises have been either conveniently forgotten or outright reversed. Some of his promises include:

• Closing the prison camp Guantanimo
• Giving 95% of all Americans a tax cut
• Halting torture of prisoners
• Eliminating warrantless wiretapping
• Removing combat troops from Iraq within 18 months
• Posting the text of all new laws on web 48 hours before they were voted on
• Eliminating the influence of lobbyists in the federal government
• Increasing the transparency of government decisions
• Working in a post-partisan manner
• Leading a post-racial society

These are things that are very important to almost all left-leaning Americans, but of course, are also important to most centrists and many conservatives. So how did he do? Did Obama keep his promises? Is he still outraged by the actions of the Bush administration enough to have reversed policy and ameliorated those actions?

Here's my take on these promises:

• He's "studying" closing Guantanimo, and apparently having trouble finding alternate holding locations for the current inmates. I'll bet anybody $10 that Guantanimo holds at least 25 prisoners (who have not been convicted of any crime) by the time Obama's first term ends. Obama has also announced that he reserves the right to hold enemy combatants indefinitely, even after they've served their sentences. Dick Cheney would be proud of his resolve.
• Obama has moved aggressively on legislation that will generally raise taxes, but has not, to my knowledge, done anything about a general tax reduction for 95% of Americans.
• He's banned torture via executive order, although I am unclear whether that means waterboarding has ceased to be an option during interrogations.
• Warrantless wiretapping continues. The Obama administration has vigorously defended in court the administration's right to continue monitoring overseas communications, in direct continuation of the Bush administration's policies.
• Combat troops are coming home from Iraq, but at the exact pace established by the Bush administration in cooperation with the Iraqi government in 2008.
• Many high-profile laws have been voted on without even giving the legislatures enough time to read them (the "Stimulus" and the House "Cap & Trade" bills). Neither of these bills was posted on the web prior to being voted on.
• Obama has lobbyists in the cabinet, and had wanted to appoint others (such as Tom Daschle). Apparently, some lobbyists are just too darn vital to the national service to allow this restriction to apply to them.
• Transparency is hard to measure, but the statement of Obama's chief of staff, Rahm Emmanuel to "never let a crisis go to waste" tends to indicate to this commentator that transparency of decision making is not a high priority in the White House.
• Several key pieces of legislature that Obama has worked hard to enact were enacted with essentially zero Republican votes or consultation. One could always argue that bi-partisanship is a two-way street that requires both parties to cooperate, but this observer saw no evidence that Obama had any interest in the minority party's views on the legislation.
• Obama's friend, Professor Skip Gates, had a run-in with a policeman who suspected he might be a burglar. Despite admitting ignorance of the facts, Obama immediately opined that the policeman acted stupidly, and implied that racial prejudice by the white policeman was the likely cause of the problem. In other words, Obama's raised race as the dominant issue without any supporting data, thereby emphasizing the different races of the participants. This is not, in this reviewer's opinion, how a "post-racial" president approaches events.

So as a conservative, I'm glad that Obama's not keeping his promises, but if I were a left-of-center voter, I'd be really pissed at him.

The news has been full of stories about angry citizens at "Town Hall" meetings hosted by congressmen and senators. The Democrats are claiming that the objections raised by the citizens at these meetings are an "Astroturf" movement (as apposed to "grassroots"). Republicans are replying that the hand-printed signs and well dressed appearance of the protestors is actually a sign that the protests are truly spontaneous.

I believe the protests are spontaneous, but that misses the point: A large portion of the electorate is angry and mobilized. Congress ignores this (and insults this!) at their peril. Let me give an example which illustrates what happens to a congressman who makes his citizens angry.

In the 1980's and 90's I lived near Augusta, Georgia, a fairly conservative southern town. In 1993, the long-standing conservative 10th district Democratic congressman had retired and his open seat had been won by Democratic freshman Don Johnson. At the time, newly elected president Clinton was trying to close a budget shortfall, and had proposed a large increase in taxes. (It was the largest tax increase ever... at that time.) Congressman Johnson had declared that he would vote against the tax increase, but when the vote came, he succumbed to a personal telephone appeal from President Clinton and voted for the new tax. Since the tax bill passed the house by a single vote, everyone who voted for the bill became the "deciding" vote. Congressman Johnson's vote angered me at the time, and I apparently was not alone in this anger.

The Congressman hosted a Town Hall meeting shortly thereafter. I had never been to one before, but I was energized by the crowd of 75 or so citizens, most of whom were mad as hell at what they considered a betrayal by Representative Johnson. Many of the questioners demanded to know what "Slick Willie" had promised the congressman in return for his vote. The Congressman's earnest, almost plaintive, statements that he made his vote in good conscious without any quid-pro-quo of any type were not well received by the hostile crowd.

I am somewhat ashamed to admit that I, and most of the people at that meeting, did not behave respectfully to the congressman. He was interrupted repeatedly by jeers, shouted rebuttals, and cat-calls. He made his points, but there was nothing he could say that could explain away his critical support for a large, unpopular tax increase. In any event, the crowd was not in a conciliatory mood, and let him know this in very direct and personal terms.

A local TV news crew had cameras at the meeting, but in a stunning example of media bias (which at the time I ascribed to simple incompetence by the local field producer), completely minimized the uproar. Their report left viewers with the impression that there was a mild disapproval of the congressman by a few voters. No mention was made of the jeers, angry questions, or loud boos the congressman repeatedly received.

Despite the mild press coverage, the freshman congressman was defeated in the next election by a whopping 31 points. He was defeated by a dentist who had never before run for elected office. Charlie Norwood was the first Republican congressman in this district since reconstruction. That seat is still held by Republicans to this day.

So, Congresspeople, I advise you to pay attention to your constituents. Don't be fooled by Nancy Pelosi and that whole "astroturfing" BS. If you value your job, and your constituents are mad as hell, you better make sure they are not mad at you!

Rasmussen has been tracking President Obama's "Approval Index", the ratio of those who "strongly support" vs. those who "strongly appose" the President. Rasmussen reports that this ratio has been steadily falling, as the number of people who "strongly appose" Obama has risen and the number who "strongly support" him has fallen. We conservative had to suffer through Bush's abysmal approval ratings, and so we wonder if it is too early to enjoy some schadenfreude at Obama's expense. Obama appears to be very popular. Is this Approval Index a goofy number which is explicitly designed by conservatives to show Obama in a poor light? How does Obama's popularity rating compare to other elected presidents?

To find out, I reviewed the popularity of Obama as compared to all the recent elected Presidents. I used the data available from the Presidency Project at the University of California at Santa Barbara. I ignored presidents who were "unelected into office", such as Truman, Johnson, & Ford. I had assumed that every president gets some type of honeymoon, and so wanted to consider the early portion of their terms, just as they were elected. I wanted to compare them to Obama. I was hoping to discover if Obama's popularity is "normal" for newly elected presidents.

In summary, I found that Obama is right in the middle of the popularity pack of recent elected presidents. He is more popular than George W Bush was at this point, but is much less popular than Kennedy or Eisenhower, and about the same as Richard Nixon. He is much more popular than Bill Clinton, who was extremely unpopular at this point in his presidency.

click on images to get larger view

I was surprised by 2 things from this data:

• 1. There is no reliable presidential honeymoon when it comes to approval rates, and
• 2. Obama's popularity is only average for a new president

My assumption about presidential honeymoons was not supported by the data. Reagan, for example, saw his score start out low and then quickly increase about 10 points in his first 30 weeks in office. Clinton too had low numbers early in his presidency, but was able to raise them later.

One would think that Obama is wildly popular. The press he receives is almost completely positive (unless one counts conservative bloggers who are almost completely - and predictably - negative on Obama). Most conservatives are extremely critical of the Mainstream Media (MSM) for being biased in Obama's favor. The most grievous example of this is Newsweek's Evan Thomas who described Obama as "sort of god" in response to Obama's speech in Cairo. Obviously, the average American voter (as polled by Rasmussen) does not deify Obama the way most professional news gathering organizations seem to do. One would never have called Richard Nixon, or even Eisenhower, a god. JFK is still popular, but even he had to live in Camelot, not heaven. Only Obama seems to have moved the Whitehouse to Mount Olympus.

Another interesting things I learned from this exercise is how extremely volatile presidential approval rates are. The most extreme example of this is Truman, who saw approval rates as high as 91%, and as low as 22%. George W Bush also saw a precipitous and continual slide from a high point after September 11. In fact, most presidents saw their popularity slide while in office. The only partial exception to this is Bill Clinton, who left office slightly more popular than when he entered. It's interesting that we generally think highly of Truman today, despite his horrible poll numbers. Likewise, Clinton is thought to be an average president, and had average polls. Conservative such as me predict that with time, George W Bush will see a Truman-like reappraisal, but we'll have to wait a few decades before we can evaluate how prescient this prediction is.

The file that created all these charts can be downloaded by clicking here.

One of the most frustrating things for conservatives like me is the way the "mainstream media" (MSM) refuses to publish anything remotely critical of Obama or, to a lesser extent, any Democrat. At the same time they will rush to publish the most tenuous negative info about a Republican.

Apparently, even leftward-leaning observers have noticed this too. Exhibit 1 is this article from the Onion, a marvelous satirical site.

Media Having Trouble Finding Right Angle for Obama's Double Homicide

BTW, an interesting way to test this bias is to read a newspaper article about a politician, and then notice when in the article they state his party affiliation. If it is a positive article about a Democrat, I think you will find the article prominantly mentions his party. If he were a Republican, the affiliation is either missing or mentioned deep in the bowels of the article. For negative articles, the situation is reversed of course.

But don't take my word for it. Try it yourself!

At our Easter family gathering this Sunday, my brother-in-law asked that we go around the dinner table and tell each other about the high point and low point of our day so far.

When it got to be my turn, I told everyone that I had to cheat because I don't have "low points" in my day. Every day that I wake up on the top side of the grass is a high point. After all, I've got every material "need" (food, clothing, shelter, companionship, health) covered, and a good number of my "wants" as well. (In fact, I figure that most of my "wants" are things I probably would be happier without.)

Of all my good fortunes, one of my best was the discovery almost 20 years ago that I get to decide how I feel each day. Life throws all kinds of events my way, but how I feel is decided by me, continually, as I jaunt through each glorious day. Sure, things like getting stuck in traffic, or finding the dog has made a mess on the carpet, or even losing a job can all have an influence on your daily mood. But after all that, we decide to feel sad, or angry, or forsaken. And we can just as easily decide to feel upbeat.

At first, this decision-making process may be difficult, but like most things, it get's easier with practice. Here's a couple of easy ways to begin:

1. Compare the things that gone "right" in your life with the things that have gone "wrong". I think you'll find that, even though we spend a lot of time thinking about the "wrongs", life is mostly composed of the "rights".

2. Think of something else when you find yourself dwelling on adversity. As Dale Carnegie used to say, "Don't saw the sawdust."

3. When someone asks you how you are, don't mumble an "OK, I suppose". Instead, answer with a convincing "GREAT!!". You'll be amazed how much better you feel.

Events, both good and bad, happen to all of us. How we feel, is decided by each of us on a minute-by-minute basis. Don't want to feel like "Poop warmed over"? The answer is simple: Feel Great!!

Yesterday morning (Sunday, April 5), I awoke peacefully and glanced at the clock by the side of my bed. Odd, I thought, I must have been more tired than I realized since I had slept an extra hour than normal. Then I realized that my nifty self-setting alarm clock clock from Emerson Research had jumped forward 1 hour. Yesterday was the traditional change from "Standard Time" to "Daylight Savings" time. My clock, which was smart enough to know to change, wasn't smart enough to subscribe to the Federal Register and keep up with the machinations of our Federal government. It did not know that congress had advanced the change from standard time to daylight savings time.

Likewise, my wonderful, yet aging, Dell Axim X50v PDA also jumped forward an hour. Ditto to the Windows XP system that was contolling a cool LED sign I own.

Previously, I had had to lie to each of these devices and set them forward ahead of what they thought should be the start of DST.

I have yet to see (or even hear about) any serious study which shows a savings due to changing to DST. In fact, I can think of lots of reasons why it costs money to change.

There's an old saying: "Government: If you think the problems we cause are bad, just wait until you see our solutions". Our federal government feels compelled to "solve" problems. Being clueless politicians, the solutions they choose are generally not very well thought out, and are frequently exactly counterproductive to the problem they want to fix.

Please, Please. I'm begging you. Stop "fixing" things! Maybe it's time to adopt a multi-party system that suffers from paralysis. At least then congress could live the old medical maxim of "First, do no harm."

President Obama has done better than I ever imagined

I have to admit it: I voted for John McCain. I held my nose when I did it, but felt that Barack Obama was too liberal, too inexperienced, and too much of an 'empty shirt' (all talk and no substance) to be President. After watching him in office now for about 8 weeks however, I have to admit that John McCain would have been a disaster and that Obama will help make America stronger and more prosperous in the long run. True, the next 4 years will be rough, but after that we can expect much smoother sailing.

Obama's Accomplishments

Most politicians make promises that they don't keep. That's why we place such emphasis on their character, their history, and our gut reaction to them. We can't be sure what they will do on any particular situation, but at least we can make judgments about how they think. And how they think will determine how they take action. Obama's record on promises did not start out well. Early in his campaign he said he would eschew private campaign financing, and then abruptly cancelled that promise when it became clear he could generate much more funding than would be available if he accepted federal assistance. Obama also promised to pull the troops home from Iraq, improve the tone of America's foreign policy, raise our standing in the world, instill 'transparency' in government, and maintain the highest ethical standards.

So what has he done'

1. He's reviewing whether he can close Guantanimo as a prison for suspected terrorists. This was quickly followed by a formal determination that (surprise!) Guantanimo adheres to all requirements of the Geneva Convention.

2. He's announced he's withdrawing troops from Iraq in accordance with the troop reduction schedule already negotiated between the previous administration and the Iraqi government.

3. He's stopped calling suspected terrorists captured on the battlefield 'Enemy Combatants'. (There's no word on what he does intend to call them.)

4. He's pushed through an $800+ billion stimulus bill over the near-unified opposition of the Republican Party. This bill was so urgently needed that even many members of congress didn't have time to read it before having to vote on it (Luckily, many lobbyists did have the opportunity to read it). Oddly, despite needing this bill so badly, Obama then waited 2 days before signing it.

5. He's proposed massive new spending programs that will expand the role of government in the economy to an estimated 23% of GNP (the highest since World War II), while raising taxes on most wealthy Americans. He's vowed to 'not let a crisis go to waste' and is capitalizing on the need for quick action to implement his agenda.

6. Despite promising '95% of Americans' a tax cut (even though only about 75% of us pay federal income taxes), he's proposing massive carbon taxes that will increase energy costs for all, hurting the poor more as a percentage of their income.

7. He's suffered repeated embarrassments as multiple cabinet and senior level appointees have had to withdraw from consideration due to ethical problems (mostly the lack of paying taxes)

8. He's had to apologize to our most stalwart ally (the UK) for the shabby treatment of their prime minister during a recent visit.

9. He's repeatedly apologized to the Islamic world for America's historically poor treatment of this large block of the world's population.

10. He's casually dismissed the 25+% drop in the stock market value since his election was apparent as something akin to hyper interest in political 'tracking polls'.

Wow!

We need a Jimmy Carter every 32 years

We have a 'market economy'. As consumers, we are offered a myriad of choices for almost everything; we chose between brands of toothpaste, where to send our kids to college, and between 2 (or more) political parties and presidential candidates. Everyone competing for our business makes promises to us, and positions himself in a way to maximize his perceived benefit to us and minimize his perceived costs. Politicians (at least successful ones) do this exceptionally well. In this market place, Barack won decisively. More people chose his brand over John McCain's.

The Republican brand had been in disrepute for several years. Never fondly regarded by our media elites, it had lost favor even among traditionally Republican supporters. It's hard to believe that only a generation ago Ronald Regan started the 'Republican Revolution', and Newt Gingrich made the Republicans the majority party. Republicans, in the last 8 years as the majority party, had morphed into everything conservatives detested in the Democrats; Republicans spent money with wild abandon. They seemed preoccupied with getting re-elected, and fell to all the corruptions and foibles of a party in power. The result was that Republican voters abandoned them, while Democratic voters continued with their candidates.

A very similar thing had happened in 1976 when Jimmy Carter beat Gerald Ford. Carter promised to 'never lie to you' and had an inherent honesty about him that was a refreshing contrast to the Machiavellian duplicity of Richard Nixon (and by association, all Republicans). The results of Jimmy Carter's presidency were terrible, of course. The very things which made him so attractive on the campaign trail (honesty, humility, a nuclear engineer's obsession with details) were mated with his naivete and refusal to take strong action to protect American interests. This produced the humiliation of the Iranian hostage crisis, the Russian invasion of Afghanistan, and the anemic economy of the time. When Ronald Regan asked voters if they were 'better off now than they were 4 years ago', the answer was obvious, and Reagan was swept into office.

Barrack Obama is this generation's Jimmy Carter. A refreshing, eloquent personality, he had promised to make us 'post-racial' and end the divisiveness of George Bush's administration. In fact, he's been strongly partisan, spent money like mad, and presented a very weak face to the world which is likely to invite aggressive responses from our adversaries. True, the media still love him, but his approval ratings are already below George Bush's from the same time in Bush's presidency. Instead of tackling the economic crisis, Obama is more interested in boosting spending for traditional liberal programs. He's expanding the government at a prodigious rate (one of the things Republican voters detested with George Bush and the Republican congress). The ethical lapses of his appointees have been legendary.

A smart Republican party (which might be a contradiction in terms) can take back the country, starting with the midterms of 2010. Thank God for Jimmy Carter.

Like most people, I get spam. I don't think I get an inordinate amount, but it's enough to be a major hassle if I had to manually sort through it all. I typically get about 100 spam messages per day to at least one (and sometimes all!) of my half dozen valid eMail addresses. I even get spam to eMail addresses I haven't used in over 5 years.

Since I run my own servers, I like to handle spam at the server. I used to do spam filtering on my own desktop computer, but this really slowed my computer down for normal use.

After I had first installed anti-spam filtering on my server a few years ago, I found the anti-spam filters were chewing up so many CPU cycles, that the web server (which was run on the same machine) would be effected. This led me to move the eMail to a completely separate server. (I used an old Intel motherboard with dual 550 MHz Pentium II's, and this seemed to be up to the task.)

Recently, however, I found I had to upgrade something on the eMail server, so I decided to upgrade my entire eMail setup, starting with a fresh install of Debian ?etch?. I then reinstalled ?postfix?, the eMail server program, and used ?spamassassin? to control spam and integrated it with ?amavis? and ?clamav? for anti-virus and integration of spamassassin. Setting all this up turned out to be more trouble than I expected, but with lots of experimentation on a separate system, I was able to get it all working fine.

As part of this upgrade, I added another program I previously knew nothing about. It's called "postgrey", and it implements a "grey list" which has been incredibly successful in reducing spam.

Before I describe how it works, let's describe some terms. In an eMail situation, a "white List" is a list of eMail senders that are known to be non-spammers. A typical white list would include (one hopes) your immediate family and friends. Any eMail coming from someone on the white list is immediately passed through your spam filter, no matter what it contains. Similarly, you could create a "black list" of senders who's eMails are NEVER let through the spam filter, no matter what the message contains. A "grey list" is something in between and white list and a black list.

In Postgrey, any eMail from someone who hasn't sent you an eMail in over 30 days is put into a temporary grey list, and triggers special processing. The immediate impact is for postgrey to refuse to accept the message, saying the eMail server is "busy".

The official eMail server specs allow for a "server busy" message to be given to another eMail server that wants to send your server a message. Normally, this is to be used when your eMail server is taken down for maintenance. The receiving server could have been simply taken off line, but then other servers sending you an eMail would try to connect to your server, and would be "timed out" waiting for your server to respond. This "server busy" system allows the sending server to act more efficiently, and it will cause the sending server to simply try again later (usually 15 minutes to an hour later).

Postgrey watches each individual message, and if the message is from some server which postgrey does not already know, will politely reply to the sending server with a "server busy" message, and asks to sender to retry in 2 minutes. (This process is usually invisible to the computer user who has written the message). When the sending server then tries again later, the postgrey program remembers that it had previously told the sending server it was busy and allows the resent message to come into my eMail server. Once in my server, all my normal spam filtering programs then examine the message to see if it is spam or not.

The amazing thing is that 95+% of spammers do NOT try to resend the spam message. Spam apparently is a high-volume business ("We lose money on each one, but we make up for it with volume"). They apparently like to shoot off a couple bazillion eMails, and then never even bother to find out if the message made it through. This is why I can still get spam sent to eMail addresses which have been invalid for years. The spammers never get (or bother to notice) the "invalid user" error messages they must have been getting from my servers. So if your eMail address is discovered by spammers, you're screwed until all the spammers that have gotten your eMail address die. [sigh]

But since most spammers don't bother resending the spam, I never see it; Postgrey puts them on a grey list for 2 minutes, asks them to try again later, and they give up and __don't__ try again.

Postgrey never checks the content of the message. As long as the sending server resends it, postgrey is happy. That is why the rest of the eMail system routes the message through spamassassin. Spamassassin is about 99.5% effective in separating spam from ham. I used to have to glance through about 500 spams each week, and I would typically find 1 or 2 legitimate eMails in that pile. This was kind of a pain, but necessary. Now I look through 5 - 15 spams per week, and based on the power of statistics, it is far less likely that one of them is legitimate.

The cool thing is that the postgrey program takes very few CPU cycles, (unlike spamassassin which chews them up like there is no tomorrow), and so the total load on my eMail server is almost nothing. I could easily combine my eMail and web servers again since the load is so small. Oh well, it's still a good idea to have them separate. (Although maybe I'll run eMail in a virtual server.... might be a blog post for another day.)

If you run your own SMTP eMail servers, a heartily recommend postgrey.